Hey, Lets’ Give ISIS What They Want!

    Well, at least that seems to be everyone’s current plan—from the Republicans to the liberals to just about everybody else in the world. How’s that? Doesn’t ISIS want the US government to be replaced by a Caliphate (I mean a Muslim one, not the Christian one that Ted Cruz and all the Republicans except Trump want)? Well, maybe ultimately. But for right now, both sides want the exact same thing, FOR US TO BLOW UP A BUNCH OF MUSLIMS.
    You’re thinking, “Right, they want US to blow THEM up.” You bet they do, buckaroo. Here’s the deal. In Terror 101, the first thing the class is taught (after knife sharpening) is that the two main goals are to get people to pay attention to you and to recruit more gullible schmucks to your side. If ISIS wasn’t cutting off heads and blowing shit up, they’d have the same international visibility and ability to attract people to their cause as Lindsay Graham, which is none whatsoever. Now, there’s always a few hard core numbnuts who’ll come join the revolution—any revolution—but did you ever try to get people to, say, drop leaflets door to door for a political campaign? Right. Everybody’s got something else to do, you know, soccer practice, pick up the dry cleaning, rake the yard. So how hard is it to get people to forget about soccer practice, quit their jobs and RUN OUT AND BLOW THEMSELVES UP IN A FUCKING SHOPPING CENTER? How the hell do you talk people into that? Good luck. Talking doesn’t work. PREACHING doesn’t work. The only thing that works is to get people really, really pissed off. And how do you piss people off? I mean besides snoring really loud or saving 5 seats at the movies with one coat. Well, you get someone to attack them and their loved ones, that’s how. THEN they’ll drop everything and flock to defend their God/Homeland/Way of Life, trigger fingers itching, souls aching to go to heaven and to send the enemy’s to hell. So that’s what Terror 101 teaches. You provoke your opponent into dramatic repression, the bloodier the better. The more your own people suffer, the more of them flock to your cause. If you sit quietly in your basement and write clearly reasoned, impassioned tracts and blog posts—crickets (Lindsay Graham, Rob Porter). But get someone to set off a few explosions in your town, machine gun a crowd, and voila, people come out of the woodwork ready to kill. That’s what ISIS just did in France, they KNOW the response it will provoke, and THEY CAN’T WAIT. They’re praying 5 times a day for “Crusader” troops to return to the Middle East.
    In football, if somebody gives you an opening, you run through it as fast as you can. In chess, if somebody gives you an opening, you figure out where the trap is—and don’t step in it. So we’re playing football and ISIS is playing chess.
    If I were a presidential candidate, I’d stop here, and not spell out what I think we SHOULD do. But I’m not running for anything, so I’m perfectly happy to put my money where my mouth is and tell you the best chess response. In the short term, people do have to die. We need to send a bunch of their higher-ups on a free trip to see if that afterlife they’ve been dreaming about is all it’s cracked up to be. We’ll lose our own recruiting match if something like this doesn’t happen. The trick is that it has to be done in a way that doesn’t make good jihad TV. No obliterated homes with sad eyed old men standing in front of the rubble, no children’s bodies arranged in a photogenic line on the sidewalk surrounded by crying women, no American (or French, German or Guatemalan) planes roaring overhead. And absolutely no tanks rumbling through Arab neighborhoods. Let the bastards do their own recruiting.
    In the long term, we attack their resources, not their people and towns. Last I heard, there weren’t any factories making machine guns and high explosives and tanks and shit in ISIS lands. All their stuff comes from elsewhere, paid for with money from selling oil or simple looting. So the people who run the companies that sell them weapons, the people who run the banks that handle the money, and the people in charge of the companies that buy their oil? All those people need to go to jail. And if there’s no way to make charges stick, maybe they just have a little visit from SEAL Team 6. And you thought I was a softie.


Race or Journey? (The Quick and the Dead)

It’s very tempting to look at life as a race when you’re one of the fastest runners. And the race of life isn’t just for a little, shiny medal. It’s to see who gets the lion’s share of stuff—big money, a good job, fine schools for their kids. No wonder the winners like this model. And you slower folks, well you just need to train harder, sweat more, buckle down gosh darn it so that you too can snatch up a little piece of bread before someone else stuffs it in his mouth. Yeah, those fast, smart, talented people, especially the ones born with a 100 meter head start, just loves them their competition. Too bad about that kid with the sprained ankle, the old person, the woman with a baby—heck, they just make it easier to place higher.
That race analogy is appealing of course—appealing to our ego, our vanity, our belief that nobody’s better than me. And people aren’t better than you, at least not more deserving. But you know damned well some are faster, wilier and have families with more money and connections to make up for any shortcomings in speed and smarts. So who benefits from the perpetuation of this appealing fantasy? Who needs to convince a bunch of average people that they’re just as fast as professional triathletes, just as likely to win a prize even if they’re born so far behind the starting line they don’t even need to be elbowed out of the way. “Yeah, you people can do it! At least you could if that pesky ol’ guvmint hadn’t tied your shoelaces together. Yeah, that’s why you’re not pulling in six figures and your kid’s on drugs instead of on a football scholarship. It’s the government’s fault! Get out there and fight! Pay no attention to those men behind the curtain.” This sound like anybody you know?
In America, the life-as-race analogy isn’t even questioned. It’s part of who we are, just like high infant mortality, mass shootings and preventive war. Well it’s a shitty analogy that’s been scrapped in a lot of the civilized world, and it’s past time for an upgrade here in the USA. How about thinking of life as a journey, a wagon train, a caravan to a far-off destination? There is no “win” in a journey, just the need to get as many people as far as we can each day in as good a shape as they can be. If a scout leader takes kids on a hike and some get left behind, hungry and lost, that scout leader has failed, no matter how quickly the first kids get to the next camp site or how many merit badges they chalk up. We’re all in this together, people. Seen anybody in the Republican debates who thinks like that? Me neither.

It Ain’t Over Till We Say It’s Over

Article in the NYT today about our ongoing inability to close Guantanamo (see article).

Did you know that this year, it is costing about $443 Million to incarcerate 149 people? That’s $3 Million per prisoner or $8,145 PER DAY! That’s a hell of a tropical resort, particularly since the pool is closed. For that price we could put every last detainee on a cruise ship and sail the 7 seas. Hey, I know! Then we could drive the ship up and down the east coast of Africa until it was highjacked by Somali pirates, who would hold the prisoners for ransom and…ha ha, joke’s on you. Problem solved. Of course we couldn’t really do this—the cruise ship would put the prisoners at risk of Norovirus, which even the US would have to consider an unacceptable violation of their rights. Oh, and also the prisoners are “enemy combatants,” who can be held until the “war is over.”

Now we can disagree about the justice and wisdom (or lack thereof) of this plan, but just for the sake of argument, let’s assume it’s a good idea. My question is this: How do we know when the War On Terror is over? What visible event could we conceivably witness that would allow Dick Cheney to give the nod and have every last Republican agree that “Yep, by golly we’ve won.” (Of course, the war could equally be over if it was “Oops, we’ve lost,” but I notice nobody is going there).

Now we knew when the war with Japan ended because in 1945 some Japanese government officials put on funny Western formal clothes, lined up on the deck of a battleship and signed a bunch of papers. Now, even though we don’t have any more battleships, I’m sure we can find a suitable boat, but who signs the surrender forms in the War On Terror? The Mayor of Terrorville? The Secretary of Sorry I Don’t Have a State? Even if the current, and highly temporary, successor to Bin Laden as leader of Al Qaeda were to show up in his best formal camouflage and execute a document (as opposed to a journalist), that would be binding on maybe a few of his closest followers and more likely on no one whomsoever. Most current Al Qaeda groups share only the name; they take inspiration but not orders. And that’s just Al Qaeda. The biggest bunch of terror trouble-makers currently are the nutcases from ISIS, who even Al Qaeda told to “tone it down a little, you’re making us look like crazy extremists.” No, bombs will continue to go off as long as there’s a half-dozen numbnuts somewhere with a grievance and a case of C-4.

So if there’s nobody who even can surrender, and there will always be somebody willing to blow stuff up, what does the end of the WOT actually look like? Is there one, or are those who profit (politically or financially) from endless war the only winners here? Hey, I know! How about if Al Qaeda and ISIS sold all their guns and bombs and formed a super PAC to support Republican candidates? Would that be enough to let us say we won? Well, you know, that might actually do it—for the Republicans anyway—but the rest of us would still think they were out to destroy our country. Oh well…

Happy Anniversary, Sarajevo

OK, love anniversaries. Today is the 100th anniversary of the assassination in Sarajevo (where have we heard that name before?) of Austro-Hungarian Archduke Franz Ferdinand. The actual trigger-puller was Gavrilo Princip, a Bosnian Serb dupe of an ultra-nationalist, underground Serbian movement called “Union or Death!” popularly known as the “Black Hand”, who in case their name left anyone confused about their intentions, created a logo consisting of a skull, crossbones, knife, vial of poison and a bomb. Today, they’d also have a mushroom cloud. ISIS could take lessons from those guys.

Anyway, in the really super, ultra-condensed, brief version, Franz’s assassination led to Austria declaring war on Serbia, whose allies the Russians declared war on Austria, whose allies the Germans declared war on Russia and because the Russian ally France might then attack Germany, attacked France via Belgium, whose ally England felt compelled to…kaboom! Isn’t simplifying history fun?

Want a good quick read on this? See NYT article “If Franz Ferdinand Had Lived” at http://nyti.ms/1qkpcAh  Want the long form, see, oh, any of a few hundred books, including The Sleepwalkers by Christopher Clark.

So, Gavrilo Princip was arguably the proximal cause of WWI, and this is the anniversary of the start of that debacle. But saying Princip was the cause is sort of like when you have a huge pit full of oil-soaked trash criss-crossed by tightropes over which walk a succession of drunken clowns bearing torches—you know one of the clowns is going to fall and the whole thing’ll go up, it’s only a matter of time. The identity of the specific clown who falls in the pit and triggers the conflagration is just a matter of random, dumb luck. And Europe was full of drunken clowns back in 1914, many of them occupying positions of leadership and authority and had spent the previous 20 years building the pile of oil-soaked trash ever higher. Europe had been headed for a big war for a long time.

We called it “The War to Make the World Safe for Democracy.” Right. War to make the world safe for fascism and mass slaughter it was, leading like a lit fuse directly to the evil-clown rulers Hitler, Stalin, Mussolini, and Franco and the totalitarian states that took central government rule to levels of control and oppression that the monarchies never even had wet dreams about…And so there was WWII.

So thanks, drunken clowns! 100 million of our best and brightest dead, dead, dead, and many more than that so damaged in body and mind that they could not help create a just and modern society.  Maybe this is a good anniversary to remind ourselves to think twice before we try to bomb and assassinate our way to world peace—it’s often a little hard to tell what might really happen. Are you listening John McCain?

Happy anniversary.

Watermelon, Meet Hammer

I bet you don’t all agree on how amusing Gallagher is, with his giant, whacking sledgehammer and immobile, squishy vegetable/fruit targets.

 gallagher gallagher2

But between the hammer and the watermelon, I bet you agree on which one’s the Republican and which one’s the Democrat. Right? The Republican hammer has been pounding away at the Democratic Affordable Care Act watermelon for the last 6 mos until finally this week, Kathleen Sebelius popped out. Meanwhilst, Democrats—in and out of the White House—have just been sitting in the front row, silently draped in their plastic sheets, somewhat offended by the waste of good food yet strangely attracted to the spectacle.

So what. Sebelius IS a watermelon, right? Botched that website rollout! Give her a whack for me!

Well, any of you ever been involved in a really big, innovative, IT project? And no, I don’t mean changing your FB profile photo or starting a blog. I mean something large that’s never been done before and requiring multiple vendors and multiple years. I didn’t think so. Well I have (certainly not on the scale of the ACA, but still in the multi-million range). So let me remind you the IMPORTANT things that happened with this rollout. The project LAUNCHED ON ITS GO-LIVE DATE in October. And it MET ITS FIRST MAJOR TARGET (7 million registrants by 3/31/14). These are the metrics that matter, not whether there were bugs along the way. Meeting a launch date set over a year in advance and a pre-specified metric in a project this complex is a big deal. And if you think you can do innovative tech (ie, building something that didn’t exist rather than just duplicating current functionality) and NOT have bugs, problems and glitches, well then you don’t know what you’re talking about or have an axe to grind. That is, you’re a Republican.

So why do we insist on being watermelons? Why do we just lie there, taking whack after whack from the Republican hammers being wielded by grinning loons? We reformed health coverage in this country! We made it impossible for insurance companies to deny medical coverage to people who (gasp) actually NEED medical coverage! We made it impossible for them to throw you out once you got sick! We arranged for subsidies to help people who cannot afford the full cost of coverage and expanded access to Medicaid! These are good things. These are great things. What did the Republicans do? Well, they split their seams and shouted themselves hoarse trying to block all this and deny people health care. And most Republican governors are still blocking access by refusing to participate in the Medicaid expansion, which ALONE will cause thousands of otherwise preventable deaths each year (see Paul Krugman in NYT, and the original research article in Health Affairs Blog).

From now on, every time you hear some dunderhead fuming about the “botched” ACA, pull out the hammer:

  • Launched on time
  • Met its targets
  • Why are you killing people?

Capitol Hill is full of fat frogs croaking “Benghazi, Benghazi” who need a good whack and I want to see people in the administration haul off and take a swing for once.

Who Would Jesus Serve?

The Arizona legislature just passed a bill (see NYT) allowing businesses to refuse to serve customers if doing so would violate their “religious beliefs.”

This bill will right important moral wrongs like the flower shop owner whose conscience would bother him just forever if he had to sell flowers for a same-sex wedding (case in Washington state). Hmm…I wonder if the florist’s conscience would also prod him to donate flowers for free to all funerals of gay people? And the bakery in Colorado that doesn’t want to bake a wedding cake for a gay couple.  Of course, I guess this would also mean that a Muslim business owner would be able to refuse to serve unveiled women (or a woman alone or, gasp, in the company of an unrelated man!).

We’ve got to put a halt right now to business owners being forced to act against their beliefs! Next thing you know, restaurants will have to let Black people eat right next to White folks! Plantation owners will even have to give up their slaves, which of course the bible permits (Leviticus 25: 44-46)! Why the moral fabric of society will be torn completely asunder if religious shopkeepers can’t follow their Christian principles and refuse to serve people who don’t share their beliefs. I mean, that’s what Jesus always did, right? When all those people came for Passover dinner at the Sea of Galilee and there weren’t enough loaves and fish to go around, Jesus made sure that the true believers got served and the undeserving poor (some of whom were probably prostitutes for crying out loud!) were sent packing, right? Least, that’s how I remember it. Maybe I better check the bible again (John 6:1-14). Hey, wait a minute. Jesus served everybody? He made sure there were enough loaves and fishes for all? He didn’t even check photo ID?

Now, I’m not a Christian, but I’d think that if these Christian business owners really thought they needed to run their shops based on their oh-so-important religious beliefs, they could at least pick some non-toxic ones. Beliefs like 1 John 3:17-18 “But if anyone has the world’s goods and sees his brother in need, yet closes his heart against him, how does God’s love abide in him? Little children, let us not love in word or talk but in deed and in truth.”

Christian values, my ass.

Chris Christie, Leader of the Free World

Imagine you work for a large, belligerent, mean-spirited man—sort of like a wild boar but without the grace and sense of portion control—say, someone like Chris Christie. And you and some of your fellow minions (all of whose careers depend completely on the wild boar’s good will) come up with a really, really great idea, a wonderful plan to punish the “animals” (preferred gubernatorial terminology for “Democrats”) who have been nipping at your boss’s heels. The one little catch is that if word of your plan gets out, your boss will be incredibly embarrassed and suffer great political harm, perhaps even to the extent of having to speak politely to reporters. What to do? Do you a) run with the plan anyway, knowing the boss loves surprises and would never dream of taking retribution on you if by chance you accidentally scuttle his chance to be president, or b) even though you’re sure he’ll totally love your plan, cover your ass by making sure he was ok with it? “Uh, say, boss, I bet it would make those bums up in Ft. Lee look pretty bad if there was to be, like maybe, uh some traffic problems on the bridge, uh, you think?” (for current background on the bridge scandal, see NYT article)

Clearly the answer is “b.” Underlings, even clueless Republican underlings, working for a bullying micromanager wouldn’t even dream of taking such a politically drastic step without having an ok from above. So it looks like we’re in for a long round of “what did he know and when did he know it” to see if someone was so incredibly stupid as to document a conversation with the governor about causing 4 days of gridlock in the entire town of Ft. Lee.

However, as entertaining as this might be (Rachel Maddow is proving an excellent and engaging investigative reporter), I’m not sure it really matters. Or matters in terms of whether Chris Christie is the kind of person we want as the ever-becoming-less-aptly-termed Leader of the Free World (although certainly still “leader of a gigantic army with thousands of nuclear weapons”). It does matter in terms of possible indictment or impeachment but here’s why it doesn’t matter for the Christie for President nightmare (and why “b” might not actually be the correct answer). Assume for a minute that Christie actually in truth didn’t know about the plan. To me that means that the underlings were all so completely convinced that the bridge closure plot was simply “business as usual,” something so obviously in line with Christie’s wishes and modus operandi, that it didn’t even occur to them to get permission—it would be like getting permission to order pizza. They know what he wants without him having to say. So the fact that Christie runs an administration in which underhanded political tricks that inconvenience 10s of thousands (and apparently caused one death) are considered business as usual—something not worth bothering the boss about—is as damning as if Christie had cooked up the entire scheme himself and moved all the traffic cones (although he’s already confessed to that). Whatever turns up from here on out, Christie is clearly unfit for the Oval Office. What remains to be seen is whether he is fit for an early bus ticket home.